Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 20.264542 21.351540 22.488854 23.771655 25.183326 26.695193 28.444484
2026-02-01 18.466629 19.947619 21.565452 23.478128 25.696505 28.212394 31.316848
2026-02-08 17.255690 18.927991 20.804811 23.092108 25.839735 29.082126 33.273972
2026-02-15 16.437867 18.254877 20.339335 22.944584 26.169058 30.108884 35.422296
2026-02-22 16.037681 18.017864 20.337182 23.307422 27.093662 31.885951 38.641737
2026-03-01 15.416127 17.468317 19.909429 23.093809 27.246494 32.651216 40.550510
2026-03-08 14.689912 16.749711 19.227865 22.505198 26.853204 32.634803 41.328856
2026-03-15 14.186407 16.278029 18.823676 22.238004 26.849491 33.122093 42.849270
2026-03-22 14.022490 16.215916 18.924021 22.621155 27.729956 34.887260 46.452779
2026-03-29 13.803748 16.071112 18.905689 22.836437 28.380407 36.360180 49.765156
2026-04-05 13.591832 15.923269 18.871914 23.021244 28.988729 37.806537 53.205327
2026-04-12 13.271336 15.621666 18.620652 22.888875 29.121654 38.525825 55.477253
2026-04-19 12.878647 15.223585 18.239488 22.575832 28.996692 38.873573 57.218832
2026-04-26 12.509409 14.845274 17.871786 22.265340 28.857280 39.187556 58.949083
2026-05-03 12.151291 14.469469 17.492438 21.917896 28.635580 39.339601 60.375544
2026-05-10 11.890798 14.214914 17.268226 21.782034 28.728289 40.017891 62.943956
2026-05-17 11.808921 14.195475 17.364038 22.114273 29.570863 42.049161 68.683905
2026-05-24 11.553993 13.933873 17.113088 21.918761 29.552083 42.554277 71.184020
2026-05-31 11.198063 13.525998 16.645245 21.379510 28.943718 41.943138 71.024803
2026-06-07 10.954784 13.266258 16.378777 21.134447 28.806751 42.187958 72.936477
2026-06-14 10.914526 13.282920 16.502519 21.485809 29.679155 44.394882 80.118262
2026-06-21 10.827820 13.232179 16.526967 21.683075 30.300247 46.182065 86.719546
2026-06-28 10.736445 13.171843 16.534524 21.852328 30.880767 47.947571 93.791762